The Neutaur Import Signal
A year-over-year read on physical import shipments into a company’s verified supply chain, from public customs records. It measures physical inflow — not share price, not sentiment, not a forecast.
How we read it
- We compare import shipments into a company’s supply chain over the past 12 months with the 12 months before, as a year-over-year change.
- We count only suppliers we can tie to the company by identity — not by name alone. Freight forwarders and pure traders are left out.
- Small samples are dropped, and extreme swings are capped, so one outlier can’t pass for a trend.
What it is not, and its limits
- Shipment volume, not revenue — more shipments is not more dollars.
- U.S. maritime imports only. Air freight and domestic movement are not captured.
- An input signal — inflow into a supply chain, not a company’s own output or earnings.
- When a supplier’s identity can’t be verified, we leave it out rather than guess — so the signal undercounts rather than overstates.
What we keep private
The exact rules we use to verify that a supplier belongs to a company, and the thresholds behind the signal, are proprietary. We publish what the signal measures, where it comes from, and where it falls short — not the recipe. That is the line institutional data providers draw: disclose the inputs and the limits, keep the model private.
How to cite Neutaur
You’re free to cite the signal with attribution. Please credit Neutaur and link to neutaur.com.
NEUTAUR is a data-analytics tool, not an investment adviser. It observes public data and organizes it, consistent with the Publishers’ Exclusion of the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (§202(a)(11)). Nothing here is a personalized recommendation, a prediction, or a price target. See the full disclosures.